When Estimates are Plain Wrong
The government’s inaccurate estimate of the number of foreign workers in the UK has been in the headlines this week. The estimate has reportedly been shy of about 400,000 workers who have come to the UK in the past 10 years.
How is it possible to get it so wrong? People who work in this country are required to have a national insurance number. When they take up work they are required to be registered for tax. When people enter or leave the country they are required to show their passports. All of this information is recorded in various databases, so the government shouldn’t need to estimate anything. They should know exactly how many people have entered the country, who they are and what they are doing to support themselves.
This situation led me to speculate upon what it would be like if large organisations, like the University where I work, were to apply estimating techniques instead of precise, unequivocal measures.
Estimates are routinely employed when planning and forecasting. There is no way of telling how many students are going to sign up for the new basket-weaving MSc course that may start next year so some informed estimates may be required. But that is forecasting, where data doesn’t currently exist.
Applying the same, loose and inaccurate estimating techniques in a large organisation like a university would lead to chaos. If we did not have accurate measures of the number of registered students, who they are, what they are doing etc. there would be no way for the university to determine the provisions required.
The same applies to the country as a whole. What’s more, the fact that the government have got it so wildly wrong makes all of the figures and statistics quoted by the government suspect.
Confidence in the statements released and the figures quoted by this government will have been severely and adversely affected by this report.
